Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Real estate bubble seen to threaten Asia in ’14

Although investment professionals in the Asia-Pacific are optimistic about global prospects in 2014, most are increasingly concerned about asset bubble risks in the region’s property markets, according to a survey by the CFA Institute.

Based on the 2014 global market sentiment survey conducted by CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Institute, an international association of investment professionals, 56 percent of them expected the global economy to expand this coming year. It represented a significant shift in sentiment from that of last year when only 32 percent of respondents held such view.

About 68 percent of respondents in the Asia-Pacific are worried about asset bubble risks in their respective markets, with 52 percent seeing it coming from the real estate sector. In the Americas, only 49 percent saw such a threat emerging.


Also, respondents see little change in the level of integrity in the global capital markets, although Asia-Pacific respondents are more optimistic about this than their counterparts in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. 

The annual survey measured the opinion of 6,561 CFA charterholders and members globally, more than 1,000 of whom are in the Asia-Pacific.

“The number of our members who expect the global economy to expand has nearly doubled in the last two years. However this is no time for those in finance to become complacent,” said John Rogers of CFA Institute. “The survey reflects that investor trust has been eroded. We must embrace ethical behavior at all levels.”

source:  Inquirer

Architecture, planning and design: Recommendations toward a more resilient Philippines

In my over 40-year experience as an architect and urban planner, I have been quite vocal about our country’s lack of focus to consistently provide resilient and sustainable infrastructures and buildings to combat the prevalent issues in planning and housing in our cities, especially since our country is the third most vulnerable to natural disasters. We should look at disaster prevention as a basic tenet in environmental planning, architecture, urban development, construction and education through policies and measures that suit the individual characteristics of each community, town, and city.

Last year, the Philippine Institute of Environmental Planners (PIEP), together with the Japan Foundation, hosted a National Convention aimed at planning toward sustainable communities. The convention put forth a shift from the old perception of urban development into the new generation of sustainability, prioritizing people and environment first before economy. As President of PIEP for 2013 and 2014, this year’s National Convention theme tackled Disaster Preparedness and Sustainable Development, in light of the recent disaster event that affected the Central Visayas region last October 15, a national convention that we held the day Super Typhoon Yolanda devastated the Visayas region. It is our hope that this year’s convention will stress the urgency toward a more resilient Philippines by confronting the challenges facing environmental planners and the private sector groups and how the PIEP could play an active role in the development process of local communities.

Being situated in a region within the Pacific Ring of Fire primarily calls for vigilance in disaster preparedness. Protection of life and the enhancement of the built environment are the foremost responsibilities of architects, urban planners, and engineers. In its stand of pushing its accountability toward Nature, God, and Country, Palafox Associates prepared a brief list of recommendations on urban planning, architecture, and engineering to address hazards toward safer cities, towns, and communities. These recommendations were expounded and further developed hand-in-hand by the government, the people, and the experts. The past administration was given this list after the catastrophic storm Ondoy that crippled most of Manila. In the first week of the subsequent administration, the same recommendations were reiterated.

In the midst of several disasters and emergencies, awareness must be given due priority. These are among the essential steps toward a more progressive economy, tourism, and national growth.

The 10-year program
One of the most important parts of the recommendations that we sent MalacaƱang in 2010 after the devastation of Ondoy and the earthquake in Haiti was a 10-year program. To be accomplished from 2010 to 2020, the program is an initial plan and tentative scheme toward safer cities, towns, and communities. The government must promote flood-proof, fireproof and earthquake resistant measures by designating open spaces as evacuation places in urban areas, develop and strengthen urban facilities which can be used as comfortable disaster-proof living zones by creating individual citizen awareness for disaster prevention and response.

Among the adaptation and mitigation measures proposed by Palafox Associates is the regular deepening of silted lakes, rivers, creeks, and other waterways, coupled with pollution abatement measures and proper solid waste management. This way, our water bodies can hold more floodwater and reduce flood levels. In line with this, the hills and mountains near the catch basis should be reforested to help absorb more floodwater.

But more importantly, however, is the need to update Daniel Burnham’s 1905 plan for Metro Manila, the 2004 MMEIRS Report, the 1976-1977 Mmetroplan, and the 2003 Manila Megalopolis Concept Plan 2020 to serve as guidelines for the LGUs, national government, and the citizens to follow.

Immediate action needed
However, since mitigation measures like flood control and drainage infrastructure being made by the government will most likely see results more than 10 years from now, adaptive measures are the immediate response our country needs since we get flooded every year and earthquakes, fires, and other disasters may happen anytime.

In this case, it is imperative that we try to provide immediate mitigation measures since our country gets its fair share of natural disasters. By identifying the areas that are liable to disasters, auditing the codes, and controlling development in these areas by imposing restrictions and regulations will help save hundreds of lives every year. Creating flood zoning overlay maps using the area’s 100-200 year flooding history to separate living spaces from flood-prone areas. Special attention should be given to the Laguna Lake and Pasig River, where essential adaptive infrastructures should be constructed, among them, the construction of the ParaƱaque spillway and road dikes around Laguna Lake. When constructed, the spillway will flush out floodwaters out of the low-lying areas during typhoons more quickly and thus prevent lasting damage to properties.

Earthquakes and floods
In the aftermath of the Bohol and Cebu earthquake last October 15, it has been brought to light how some of the buildings affected in the earthquake were not structurally fit enough to withstand a high intensity earthquake. These brittle skeletons were laid bare after the earthquake and exposed the grim truth that cheap, substandard materials and shortcuts in labor procedures were employed in the structures, worsened by the bureaucracy and red tape in securing building permits. There may be building officials and government engineers who do not review the structural calculations/seismic analysis of particular projects reportedly because of bribes.

When designing a building/ establishment, performance-based design should be used, among them, implementing an “under reinforced system” on the structural design of a building/establishment to see the cue of failure/cracks on the concrete before it reaches its maximum tolerable stage, follow technical specifications provided by the structural engineer. Routine inspection and structural audit of all buildings particularly the old ones in our cities and provinces should be done, and if found unsafe, should be immediately put up for demolition.

Seismic evaluation and rehabilitation designs of existing buildings using carbon fiber and dampers should be integrated. Developers should also identify the location of earthquake fault lines within the vicinity so that structural engineer can make adjustments in their structural design.

Since earthquakes and tsunamis go hand-in-hand for those living in coastal areas, there should be a provision for the construction, improvement, and security of residents in case of tsunamis. Anti-tidal wave facilities like breakwaters and embankments and geotechnical studies should be included as well. In terms of infrastructure, evacuation sites should be at least 10 hectares and 1 square meter per evacuee, and construction of quakeproof conduits with utility tunnels, safety devices and facilities should be done as well.
For flood-prone areas in the country, necessary infrastructures include securing water supply stations within 1.5-2 km from every household, roads should have permeable pavements, parks and apartment complexes should enable non-building spaces as flood control lakes to serve as multi-purpose flood-control lakes, and buildings should have underground water holding capacities.

Due to the rising sea level, our country can minimize flood damage to lowlands by finding out past flood records and promoting vertical and adaptive architecture. By enabling the sewerage systems to store rainwater and installing filtration boxes, it helps strengthen drainage systems in urban areas.  To prevent landslides caused by heavy rainfall in mountain and hillside villages, sand-arresting works and reforestation through tree planting is needed.

The biggest challenge architects, designers, engineers, and planners face in developing countries today is redefining the architecture and planning of the rapid urbanization to meet the demands of the growing economy and population. As the number of disasters brought about by climate change, inadequate infrastructure, and obsolete practices in planning, zoning, and urban development increase, our response to the built environment will reflect how we perceive our immediate surroundings as well as our roles as its caretakers and stewards for future generations.

source:  Manila Times Column of  by Felino A. Palafox, Jr.
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